El Niño snow outlook 2026/27: where to ski

El Niño will shape snow everywhere this winter, but not the same way. In its 12 November 2026 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at better than 79%, and about a 60% chance it becomes the strongest since records began in 1950. The odds favour California, the southern Rockies, Hokkaido and the high Alps; the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia and central Honshu look weakest.

What a super El Niño is

El Niño is a warming of the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When that warming passes about 2°C, forecasters call it very strong, or "super". The best-known examples are the winters of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16.

This one has been building since autumn in Australia (spring in the north). The Japan Meteorological Agency's figures show the NINO.3 region warming steadily through 2026, and the monthly reading reached +4.4°C in October 2026. NOAA's 12 November update had the Niño-3.4 index, the patch of ocean forecasters watch most, at +2.5°C.

The World Meteorological Organization has been blunt about the event. "This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in September 2026.

A word on what follows: seasonal outlooks deal in odds. A region that "favours below-normal snow" can still have a great January, so check the forecast for your resort before you book, and again before you go. Every resort page on Project Powder has a snow forecast worked out for the resort's base and summit.

El Niño and snow in North America

Strong El Niño winters tend to send the Pacific jet stream into the southern half of the continent: wetter in the south, milder and drier in the north. NOAA's seasonal outlooks for winter 2026/27 follow that pattern, and the effects usually show most from January to March.

• Pacific Northwest and British Columbia: the weakest outlook. NOAA's 15 October 2026 seasonal outlook favours a warmer-than-normal winter across the northern tier "from the Pacific Northwest eastward". OnTheSnow found that in the seven strong El Niño winters since 1957–58, Washington and Oregon "finished below normal for snow every time". That puts Whistler Blackcomb, Mt Baker and Mt Bachelor on the wrong side of the odds this winter.
• California: the best odds in years. NOAA's October 2026 outlook raised the odds of above-normal precipitation for much of California and the Southwest. That makes Mammoth Mountain, Palisades Tahoe and Heavenly the winners on paper for 2026/27. Warm storms can bring rain to lower slopes, so the higher the better.
• Southern Rockies and New Mexico: favoured. Telluride, Purgatory, Wolf Creek and Taos have historically done well in strong El Niño winters.
• Utah and central Colorado: a coin toss. The signal is weak for Park City, Snowbird, Vail and Breckenridge.
• Northern Rockies and Canadian Rockies: leaning lean. NOAA's October 2026 outlook favours below-normal precipitation for the northern Rockies, home to Big Sky and Whitefish, and the Canadian resorts north of the border, such as Revelstoke, Lake Louise and Sunshine Village, sit in the same milder, drier pattern.

El Niño and snow in Japan

Japan's powder comes from cold air flowing off Siberia across the Sea of Japan. El Niño tends to weaken that winter monsoon, and the Japan Meteorological Agency's winter outlook, issued on 18 September 2026, expects a warm winter with less persistent cold outbreaks.

• Hokkaido looks the safer bet. For December–February, the JMA's 18 September 2026 outlook gives northern Japan, which includes Niseko, Rusutsu, Kiroro and Furano, an even 40% chance each of near-normal or below-normal snow.
• Central Honshu is more exposed. The same JMA outlook gives eastern Japan, the grouping that covers Niigata and Nagano, a 50% chance of below-normal snow for December–February. That takes in Hakuba, Nozawa Onsen and Myoko Kogen; Shiga Kogen, the highest of the big Honshu resorts, is the safest choice there.

Japan's average snowfall is so high that a lighter winter there is still a lot of snow. Korean resorts sit under the same weakened monsoon and lean on snowmaking in any year.

El Niño and snow in the Alps

El Niño's influence fades by the time it reaches Europe, where the North Atlantic Oscillation and the polar vortex matter more. The six seasonal models compared by Severe Weather Europe in October 2026 range from 30 cm more snow than normal in the Alps to 30–60 cm less.

The sensible response is to go high. A mild, wet start with a high snow line hurts low resorts most, so glacier and high-altitude areas such as Tignes, Les 3 Vallées, Zermatt, Saas-Fee and Sölden have the best odds.

The southern hemisphere: El Niño has already been

For skiers in Australia and South America, this El Niño has already shaped a season, with opposite results.

• Australia had a terrible 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño on 16 June 2026, and Snowy Hydro's snow depth at Spencers Creek peaked at 94.5 cm, about half the long-term average, Weatherzone reported. Read our Australian ski season 2026 review.
• The Andes had a huge 2026. El Niño has historically favoured snow in the central Andes, and SnowSure's modelled season totals show Portillo, Valle Nevado and Las Leñas all more than doubling their 30-year averages in 2026.

When El Niño ends, and the 2027 season

NOAA expects El Niño to keep strengthening before it begins to weaken in early 2027. Colombia's weather agency, IDEAM, using NOAA's diagnosis in November 2026, gives it a 61% chance of lasting until May 2027, and the models give about a 33% chance of La Niña developing by mid-2027, Infobae reported. Forecasts made before autumn are unreliable, so it's too early to call the 2027 southern season.

How to plan your El Niño ski season

• Booking now? For 2026/27, the odds favour California, the southern Rockies, Hokkaido and the high Alps. The Pacific Northwest, BC and central Honshu carry the most risk.
• Book flexible where you can, especially for December and early January, before El Niño's effects usually settle in.
• Watch the forecasts, not just the outlook. Our snow board shows where it's snowing most this week, and the 2026 opening dates show which resorts are already open.