New Zealand is expected to experience a variable winter season in 2023, with a transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions affecting the atmospheric patterns and sea surface temperatures. This will have implications for the snowsports industry in the country, which relies on consistent snowfall and cold temperatures to attract visitors and maintain ski fields.
La Niña to El Niño transition
According to NIWA, La Niña, which restrengthened during August 2022, is expected to ease to neutral by early autumn 2023. La Niña is associated with warmer than average sea temperatures in the western Pacific, which can fuel moisture-rich disturbances in the New Zealand region. These disturbances can bring heavy rainfall, snow, and strong winds, especially in June 2023.
However, El Niño conditions may arrive as early as winter 2023, with the potential for a strong event developing by spring. El Niño is associated with cooler than average sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can shift the subtropical jet stream southward and increase the frequency of southwesterly quarter winds over New Zealand. These winds can bring periods of below normal rainfall, particularly in the north and east of both islands.
Regional predictions
The table below shows the most likely outcomes for temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flows for each region of New Zealand for the winter season (June-August) 2023.
| Region | Temperature | Rainfall | Soil moisture | River flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty | Above average (45%) or near average (40%) | Near normal (40%) or below normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) |
| Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington | Above average (45%) or near average (40%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) |
| Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa | Above average (45%) or near average (40%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) |
| Nelson, Marlborough, Buller | Above average (50%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) |
| West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland | Above average (50%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) | Near normal (45%) |
| Coastal Canterbury, east Otago | Above average (45%) or near average (40%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35%) | Near normal (40%) or above normal (35% |
Implications for snowsports industry
The snowsports industry in New Zealand is a significant contributor to the tourism sector and the economy. According to a report by Tourism Industry Aotearoa in 2019, the industry generated $629 million in direct value added and supported over 8,000 jobs. The industry also has positive spillover effects on other sectors such as accommodation, transport, food and beverage, retail and entertainment.
The winter season weather outlook for 2023 suggests that the snowsports industry may face some challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the expected transition from La Niña to El Niño may result in more variability in snowfall and temperature patterns across the country. This could affect the reliability and quality of snow cover on ski fields and reduce visitor satisfaction and demand. On the other hand, the warmer than average sea temperatures around New Zealand may prevent a sharply colder than average winter and moderate the impact of more frequent southerly-quarter winds. This could extend the ski season and increase visitor numbers and spending.
The industry may need to adapt to these changing conditions by investing in snowmaking equipment, diversifying their product offerings, enhancing their marketing strategies and collaborating with other stakeholders. The industry may also benefit from monitoring the climate forecasts and updates from NIWA and other sources to plan ahead and respond to the weather events. By doing so, the industry can maximise its potential and resilience in the face of a variable winter season in 2023.
